MUMBAI: Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is Ormax Media’s proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in eight major languages, tracking over 750 films every year
The parameter FBO (First-Day Box Office forecast) serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers In October 2024, we started a monthly blog that compares FBO versus actual performance of all major films released in the month.
This post covers major theatrical releases in India in January 2026
Of the four major Hindi releases this month. Border 2, the biggest of them, opened at ₹30.0 Crores nett, just a notch (8%) below the forecast of Rs. 32.5 Cr nett, reflecting that the FBO model could capture its franchise pull and event positioning (Republic Day weekend release) accurately.
Ikkis’ over-delivery compared to its FBO can be attributed to inorganic methods, often termed as ‘corporate booking’ in the industry. The term refers to the producer or their affiliates buying tickets, to boost the box office of the film. Ormax Cinematix’s FBO forecast model is not designed to handle this inorganic boost to the box office.
The other two major Hindi releases, ‘Mardaani 3’ and ‘Happy Patel: Khatarnak Jasoos’, saw minimal deviation in actual box office performance compared to their forecasts (9% and 5% deviation, respectively).
The RajaSaab was the major Pan-India film to release in January 2026. The film’s first-day box office potential, as reflected in its FBO across different markets, was limited by poor word-of-mouth generated by the film, resulting in 14% lower performance at an all India level, comapred to the FBO.
There were several South releases, especially around the festive period of Sankranti and Pongal.
‘Mana Shankara Vara Prasad’s actual collections were a notch (9%) higher than its forecast, helped by ‘The RajaSaab’s underperformance at the box office. Most other major south films, except ‘Vaa Vaathiyaar’, had fairly accurate forecasts in Januaray 2026.
There were no major International, Punjabi or Marathi language releases in January 2026 that collected Rs. 1 Crore or more on their opening day.
