MUMBAI: Ormax Cinematix’s box office forecasts (FBO) for all major May 2025 releases vis-Ã -vis their actual box-office openings has been published.
There were two major Hindi releases in May 2025: ‘Raid 2’ and ‘Bhool Chuk Maaf‘. The forecast (FBO) for ‘Raid 2’ was ₹16.2 Crores nett, which the film outperformed, touching the Rs. 19 Crores mark, i.e., a deviation of 15%. ‘Bhool Chuk Maaf‘ saw the benefit of discounted tickets, which boosted its first-day from the forecasted fair value of ₹3.3 Cr, to almost double that amount. It said that it has been constantly updating our models to incorporate the impact of discounted tickets and promotions like BOGO (Buy One Get One Free). However, each scenario presents itself differently, and the model is learning to adapt to new scenarios, such as the introduction of discounted ticketing a day before release for ‘Bhool Chuk Maaf‘.
May 2025 saw four major Hollywood releases. ‘Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning’s forecast was within 16% of the actual, despite an unusual day of release, i.e., Saturday. While ‘Thunderbolts‘ and ‘The Karate Kid: Legends’ were forecast with good accuracy, the FBO Model under-reported ‘Final Destination: Bloodlines,’ which went on to collect twice the forecasted number. Horror genre films in Hollywood generally outperform, because they get a set of audiences who are not regular Hollywood theatre-goers, and hence, not covered in the tracking. Ormax Media says that it has been working actively on incorporating this factor in the tool.
There were eight other major South Indian language releases in May 2025, whose forecast versus actual performance has been summarised in the chart below. Tamil film Tourist Family outperformed its forecast, benefiting from an exceptionally-positive audience word-of-mouth over the course of its first day. Ace, another Tamil film, however, under-performed, especially given the equity of its lead actor (Vijay Sethupathi).
