MUMBAI: Ormax Cinematix’s FBO: Accuracy update for June 2025 has been published. This edition of the monthly blog summarises Ormax Cinematix’s box office forecasts (FBO) for all major June 2025 releases vis-Ã -vis their actual box-office openings
‘F1: The Movie’ saw a week-on-week growth in its Appeal, and crossed the Rs. 5 Crore mark on its opening day, outperforming its forecast by 10%. The other two releases also opened a notch better than expected, highlighting positive momentum related to Hollywood releases in India, which should get consolidated with the release of Jurassic World Rebirth and Superman in July 2025.
There were three major Hindi releases in May 2025: ‘Housefull 5’, ‘Sitaare Zameen Par’ and ‘Maa’. ‘Housefull 5’ and ‘Sitaare Zameen Par’ were forecast within 10% of their actual opening. Maa benefited from a ‘Buy 2 Get 1 Free’ offer that was announced the day before the film’s release, boosting its first-day box office as a result.
There were three major films from the South Indian markets that witnessed a pan India release across regions and languages. Of these, ‘Thug Life’ faced extreme audience rejection on its first day, and hence, significantly underperformed compared to its forecasted numbers.
‘Kuberaa’ outperformed its forecast in the home market (AP-Telangana), while Kannappa was forecast within reasonable margin of its actual performance across regions.
There were no major releases with a first-day box office of Rs. 1 Crore or more in June 2025, in other languages in which OCX tracks films, i.e., Marathi and Punjabi.
Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix is Ormax Media’s proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in eight major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages.
Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.
