New York: In a landmark shift in the global digital advertising landscape, Meta is projected to surpass Google in total digital ad revenues for the first time in 2026, both globally and in the United States, according to the latest Emarketer forecast.
The report positions 2026 as a watershed moment for the industry, with Meta expected to emerge as the world’s largest digital advertising platform by both revenue and market share. Meta is forecast to generate $243.46 billion in global ad revenues this year, overtaking Google’s projected $239.54 billion. In comparison, Google led in 2025 with $214.06 billion, while Meta reported $196.17 billion.
In terms of market share, Google has historically dominated the space, accounting for 26.4% of global ad spend. However, its share has been gradually declining since 2021, while Meta’s has steadily risen and is expected to reach 26.8% in 2026, edging ahead.
“In surpassing Google, Meta has essentially had many of its core strategies validated,” said Max Willens, principal analyst at Emarketer. “Meta has long understood that scale, network effects, and habits are more important than anything else in digital media. It has carefully built and defended the advantages it has in all three areas.”
Meta’s rapid ascent is being driven by strong growth across its ecosystem. The company’s global ad revenue growth is expected to accelerate from 22.1% in 2025 to 24.1% in 2026, significantly outpacing Google’s projected growth rate of 11.9%.
“Meta’s growth is not coming from just one source,” said Zach Goldner, senior forecasting analyst at Emarketer. “Instead, it’s unlocking more value across its entire ecosystem at the same time. Tools like its Advantage+, AI-generated ad creatives, and its broader automation stack are improving performance across both Facebook and Instagram, with Reels being a big beneficiary. As a result, advertisers are getting better bang for their buck, and that’s pulling more ad dollars onto the platform.”
Highlighting advertiser sentiment, Willens added, “For the vast majority of advertisers, the question is not whether they should spend money on Meta’s apps—the question is how much they should spend.”
While Google remains a formidable player, analysts note that its diversified revenue streams—including subscriptions like YouTube Premium—may impact its ability to match Meta’s ad-focused growth trajectory.
“Google has plenty of levers it can pull to try to speed up growth,” Willens said. “But the diversity of its business—it generates billions of dollars in subscriber revenues from YouTube Premium, for example—may make it harder for it to leapfrog past Meta in terms of digital ad revenues.”
The forecast also notes that recent legal developments involving Meta and YouTube are unlikely to have an immediate impact on advertising revenues.
“These cases will take years to fully play out through appeals and additional trials, and they don’t immediately force changes to how these platforms operate today,” Goldner said. “More importantly, advertisers don’t reallocate billions of dollars based on legal risk, they follow performance, and that is the bigger driver behind the shifting balance between Meta and Google.”
Meanwhile, Amazon continues to consolidate its position as the third-largest digital advertising player. The company generated $68.64 billion in ad revenues in 2025 and is projected to reach $82.07 billion in 2026 and $97.07 billion in 2027. Its share of global digital ad spend is expected to rise to 9.0% in 2026.
Collectively, Meta, Google, and Amazon are expected to account for 62.3% of global digital ad spending in 2026, with their dominance set to increase further in the coming years.
“The consolidation of digital ad dollars around Google, Meta, and Amazon reflects a compounding advantage of first-party data, AI integrations, and audience reach,” said Andrew Spink, senior forecasting analyst at Emarketer. “Smaller platforms and traditional media can’t replicate these capabilities in comparable cost or speed and, as a result, incremental budgets continue to flow in that direction.”
