MumbaiI: Linear TV revenues could decline at 5% until 2028 noted the FICCI EY Report.
Linear TV ad revenues will continue to decline, driven by a sustained annual fall of (-)3.6% in linear TV households and the migration of affluent Pay TV audiences to Connected TV (revenue of which is captured under the digital segment in this report) Subscriber migration will lead to FMCG budget reductions on linear TV and increased advertiser spending on e-commerce and point-of-sale platforms. Even with GDP growth and election related spending in 2028, linear TV ad revenues are projected to decline at a net three year CAGR of 6.8%.
Linear Pay TV distribution income will fall at 3%: The projected 3% CAGR fall in television distribution revenues until 2028 reflects the expected reduction in Pay TV homes in the country, as more large-screen viewership moves to Connected TVs (whose revenue is included under the digital segment in this report).
The large number of LCOs providing broadband services will also help the growth of wired broadband (a survey of over 28,000 LCOs indicated that three out of four LCOs were either providing broadband, or planned to launch the service for their TV subscribers). However, the increasing cost of Pay TV will drive cost-conscious consumers toward more affordable options like free TV services and YouTube on mobile and other connected devices.
Impact properties will drive disproportionate ad revenue: As viewing fragments across platforms, impact properties will continue to attract large, highly engaged audiences. This may prompt advertisers to anchor big budget campaigns around tentpole shows for rapid reach and standout visibility .
Networks may push bundled offerings around impact properties, combining premium ad spots with brand integrations—from product placements to cocreated digital content to deliver deeper engagement.
A few strong impact shows will account for a disproportionate share of network ad revenue, reinforcing investment in format innovation, integration and non-FCT revenue streams.
Connected TV will unlock product innovation: With Connected TV reach projected at 83 million households by 203032, Pay TV content will compete for eyeballs with other digital content and non-broadcaster OTT and social media platforms. This will create urgency for broadcasters to monetise this audience with new products, or lose them to other digital platforms on Connected TV.
The report expects to see innovations around premium windowing, interactivity, gaming relating to Pay TV content, repurposing Linear TV content for Connected TV consumption and Connected TV only catch-up channels. FAST channels can expand Connected TV inventory by repackaging archival and niche content into always on, genre based streams that capture lean back viewing on smart TVs where AVOD dominates.
IPTV growth will reshape distribution and retention: Bundled offerings — TV + broadband + OTT — will accelerate as DPOs counter cutting by integrating Pay TV content with IPTV and broadband services. Hybrid IPTV set top boxes that merge linear TV with OTT apps will allow operators to offer seamless “live to streaming” viewing and retain customers by combining broadcast reliability with OTT convenience.
Local cable operators can drive IPTV adoption in Tier-II and III markets by pushing broadband and hybrid services, turning traditional cable connections into digital gateways and deepening Connected TV penetration beyond metros.
FreeDish could accelerate FTA reach: To widen access in non Hindi speaking markets, Prasar Bharati’s pilot (operating till 31 March 2026) invites licensed regional language channels to apply for MPEG 4 slots; selected channels receive free slots during the pilot.
FreeDish has added dedicated regional slots and multiple new South Indian channels in 2025, reinforcing FTA reach and discovery across states.
If the pilot is successful, regional language markets could witness growth in Free TV homes With FreeDish at an estimated 53 million homes (and larger than active pay DTH), broadcasters could intensify their FTA strategy by adding more channels. The NTO 4.0 rule requiring any channel on FreeDish to be FTA across distribution platforms will push news and niche channels to stay FTA, monetising instead through advertising and digital extensions.
Pricing and packaging will evolve: Greater flexibility expected on NCF and discounts under NTO 4.0 will let DPOs tailor pricing by region, customer segment and channel mix. Broadcasters will offer smarter bundles at differentiated price points, with more choice to swap channels and reduce churn. Broadcasters and operators coming together with nuanced regional packs for Tier-III and IV markets, offers to reactive inactive STBs, and targeted offers for FreeDish homes can help convert FTA viewers to Pay TV.
Interactivity on TV will increase to deepen digital connect: The report expects to see more polls, quizzes, predictions, play-along games and fan led mechanics tied to shows, artists and events, which not only increase engagement, but convert non-addressable Linear TV viewers into identifiable, re-targetable audiences. First party data from interactive features can enable sharper targeTting, enhanced customer experiences, and measurable outcomes, all of which makes interactivity a desirable investment avenue for brands.
Fiction shows will increasingly feature gamification, moving beyond its current focus on cricket and reality content.
TV will become a brand + performance marketing channel: SME advertising on digital media is estimated at Rs. 363 billion in 202535 Shoppable overlays and on-screen QR codes across Linear and Connected TV can drive scan to buy products and lead generation, targeted for D2C brands and SMEs.
SMEs can be onboarded via self-serve portals and partnerships with e-commerce platforms; broadcasters can partner with retailers/ e-commerce/ ad platforms to cross sell TV to their SME advertiser base driving direct responses even in FTA environments, e-commerce integrations can unlock value on FreeDish by monetising its mass reach audience.
