While many might argue that exit polls are not accurate, India Today Group-Axis-My-India has a track record of anticipating accurate election results and they did not dissapoint viewers once again. In the last 4 years, they have got 33 out of 35 elections bang on! Yes, once again, the network got the Delhi Election Exit Polls spot on.
India Today Group-Axis-My-India anticipated the Aam Aadmi Party’s sweep in the February 8 vote, giving it between 59 and 68 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly. Its nearest rival, the BJP and its allies, were projected to get 2 to 11 seats and the Congress none. By Tuesday evening, the predictions turned out to be exceptionally accurate, with the AAP securing 62, the BJP around 8 and the Congress knocked out for a duck at time of writing.
India Today Group’s exit poll survey stands out as one of the most thorough statistical exercise that goes beyond just numbers, into the issues behind the numbers and the predispositions held by the voter
Viewers saw the teams at Aaj Tak and India Today TV celebrate on-air as they hit the bulls eye with the exit polls after the results were declared.
The exit poll excellence is not limited to just the Delhi Elections but extend all the way to the state elections of Jharkhand, Haryana, Maharashtra and the 2019 General Elections.
Kalli Purie
Kalli Purie, Vice Chairperson, INDIA TODAY Group said, “Every time we get a poll right the stakes get higher. This was our 5th poll bang on. The trust put in us by our viewers is a big responsibility and makes us work harder (and gives us many sleepless nights!). People keep asking me what’s the secret sauce that even your bitterest competitor quote and copy your poll. The answer is simple. We wear glasses with no colour when we look at data. Data is always neutral. The partnership of the best data input from Axis and serious ground reporting from our team before every election has made this incredible feat possible. Having an unparalleled platform with the combined muscle of broadcast, digital and social also helps a little‼
THE EARLIER POLLS THAT THE INDIA TODAY AXIS MY INDIA GOT RIGHT
JHARKHAND FORECAST
The India Today-Axis-My-India exit poll forecast the fall of the BJP in Jharkhand, giving it 22-32 constituencies in the 81-seat state Assembly. The opposition alliance comprising the JMM, the Congress and the RJD were projected to secure 38 to 50 seats.
The actual results were no different. The BJP won 25 and the opposition alliance 47 seats.
HARYANA, MAHARASHTRA FORECAST
In Haryana, the India Today-Axis-My-India forecast 32-44 for the ruling BJP. The survey foresaw the Congress ranks swelling in the range of 30-42 seats.
The actual results delivered 40 seats to the BJP and 31 to the Congress.
In Maharashtra, the BJP and the Shiv Sena, then in a pre-election alliance, together secured 161 seats, and the NCP-Congress 98, as predicted in the India Today-Axis-My-India exit poll.
The Sena and the NCP-Congress eventually stitched a new alliance together to form the state government.
INCREDIBLE TRACK RECORD
Of all the elections that took place in India between 2013 and 2020 to date, India Today-Axis My India post-poll surveys have given the most accurate predictions in 95 percent of the cases.
Since 2013, Axis My India has conducted 40 post-poll surveys, of which 38 have been spot on. Since their association with India Today in 2016, the pollsters have predicted 35 elections, of which 33 turned out to be accurate.
Conducting the largest exit poll for the world’s largest democracy the 2019 general elections, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, for instance, predicted 339-365 seats for the BJP-led NDA and 77-108 seats for the UPA in the new Lok Sabha. In actual results, the NDA got 352 and the UPA 92 seats in the lower house of parliament.
Axis-My-India chief Pradeep Gupta attributes his successful predictions to team work and scientific monitoring of voter behaviour. “We follow international best practices. Our methodology is highly refined that helps us eliminate margins of error,” he explained. “Our sampling is the most demographically and politically representative in any given election. There’s zero tolerance for any compromise on quality. That’s perhaps the reason why the Harvard Business School is doing a case study on Axis-My-India for the GE 2019 predictions.”
