GroupM has unveiled TYNY mid-year global advertising revenue growth forecast 2023 which is a reviewed version of its 2023 forecast launched in December 2022.
The mid-year estimate for 2023 global advertising revenue growth remains unchanged from the December 2022 forecast at 5.9 pc where as it has observed a declining trend in markets like India, Australia, Canada, France, Indonesia and Hungary.
The mid-year estimate of GroupM’s TYNY has observed that macroeconomic environment has led some markets to trim expectations for 2023 as compared to its December forecast, including India. The estimate for India has been revised downward from 16.8 pc in December 2022 to 12 pc in June 2023 which is a decline of 4.8 pc from the original growth forecast for 2023.
Similarly, the estimate has also downgraded Australia from 3.4 pc to 0.2 pc, Canada from 8 pc to 5 pc, France from 6.3 pc to 4.2 pc, Indonesia from 9.7 pc to 6.7 pc and Hungary from 8 pc to 1 pc. In addition three markets, Singapore, Kenya and Sweden, are now predicting decline in 2023 instead of the growth forecast last December.
- On the flip side, there are markets that have raised expectations from December, notably China is now expected to grow ad revenue 7.9 pc in 2023, up from the 6.3 pc forecasted in December 2022 report. Likewise Brazil (from 3.8 pc to 6.6 pc), Malaysia (from 5.9 pc to 7.4 pc), Hong Kong (from 5.0 pc to 6.3 pc), Middle East and North Africa (MENA) (from 4.2 pc to 6.2 pc), Nigeria (from 21.4 pc to 31.2 pc), the Philippines (from 11.5 pc to 17.3 pc) and Poland (from 0.5 pc to 5.5 pc). Of the four markets that forecast decline in December, three are now projecting growth: Italy, Spain and Austria. Only one, New Zealand, remains in decline.
- The U.S. estimate remains nearly unchanged at 5.1 pc in 2023 (versus 5.5 pc in the December forecast), although this is off a slightly weaker comparable as it was downgraded in 2022 from 7.1 pc to 5.7 pc after analyzing year-end results for media owners.
Here is the overall forecast and some other key facts:
- Connected TV adoption, among consumers and advertisers, is growing rapidly, adding 10.4 pc in ad revenue between 2023 and 2028 on a compound annual basis. Consumer spending on subscription video on demand (SVOD) represents between just one-fifth and one-third of total video spending in major markets, leaving plenty of room for streaming providers to grow subscriptions.
- Retail media is the third fastest-growing advertising channel in 2023 (behind digital OOH and CTV, although those channels are a fraction of the size). Retail media, which we now define as including ad revenue from last-mile delivery services, will grow 9.9% to reach $125.7 billion in 2023 and is forecast to exceed TV revenue (including CTV) in 2028.
- AI is likely to inform or touch in some way, at least half of all advertising revenue by the end of 2023.
