A study from Digital TV Research is forecasting that SVOD leader Netflix will likely end 2018 with 139 million streaming subscribers, adding 28 million in the year, on track for 201 million by 2023, up by 82% from the end of 2017.
If realised, says the Netflix Forecasts report, this would make 2018’s total the largest growth year ever and lower growth is forecast after.
Digital TV Research predicts that the top five countries will supply 53% of Netflix’s subs by 2023, down from 69% in 2017. Although the number of international subs overtook US ones in 2017, the analyst predicts that the US will still contribute 44% of subscribers by 2023 – and will add 16 million subs between 2017 and 2023.
North America and Western Europe will together supply 62% of Netflix’s total subscriber base by 2023, added the survey. This compares with 76% in 2017. Asia Pacific is set for fast growth by taking 14% of the 2023 total. These 28 million subs would represent quadruple the 2017 figure.
The Netflix Forecasts report also calculates that the subs surge would see streaming subscription revenues for Netflix climb by 155% from $11.3 billion in 2017 to $28.8 billion in 2023. The top five countries are expected to generate revenues of $16 billion in 2023, or 56% of Netflix’s global subscription revenues. The US will contribute $11.2 billion, with four other countries above $1 billion.
