Chennai: The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) will secure a majority in the upcoming Tamil Nadu Assembly polls by winning 151-158 seats, the Puthiya Thalaimurai pre-poll survey has predicted. The survey, taken up between February 15 and March 18, was held in 20 representative constituencies across the State. The survey says the AIADMK will secure 76-83 seats.
The method
The constituencies were grouped into five zones based on their past electoral performances. A structured questionnaire was used and respondents were chosen randomly. The questions ranged from the financial implications of the COVID-19 lockdown to the Chief Minister’s performance.
Key findings
- Farmer’s protest: The survey found that the ongoing farmers’ protest will have an impact on the electoral fortunes of the AIADMK and the DMK. As many as 81.20 per cent of respondents said they supported the agitation while the supporters were a mere 8.24 per cent.
- On Modi government: Over 60 per cent of respondents said they did not think the Modi government at the Centre has done anything more than the previous Congress government for the state of Tamil Nadu. Also, to a related question, 37 per cent said the AIADMK-BJP alliance was ‘opportunistic.’
- Stalin factor: As many as 37 per cent of respondents said Stalin’s leadership will keep the DMK in good stead in the upcoming elections. The ‘secular outlook’ of the party scored 8.35 per cent.
- The next CM: Stalin emerged as the topper with 37.51 per cent of respondents picking the DMK leader’s name. Present Chief Minister EPS had 28.33 per cent and MNM leader Kamal Haasan had a distant 6.45 per cent.
- Financial hit: Nearly 80.59 per cent of respondents said the COVID lockdown had impacted them severely. Over 61 per cent said their financial position had returned to normal and this could be read as a high approval rating of the Central and state government’s handling of the pandemic crisis.
- Price rise: Another factor that could influence voting decisions could be price rise. As many as 32 per cent of respondents said price rise could be a decisive factor.
Zone-wise party position
As stated earlier, the state was divided into zones for the survey. The south zone comprised Madurai and Tirunelveli. Here, the DMK front is ahead of the AIADMk by 11.32 percentage points. In the West zone covering Coimbatore-Salem, the AIADMK front was ahead of the DMK with 7.84 percentage points. In the Central zone, covering Tiruchirapalli-Thanjavur, the DMK is ahead of the AIADMK with 3.8 percentage points. In the North zone, covering Chidambaram-Villupuram, the DMK front is ahead of the AIADMK by 10.32 percentage points.
In the Chennai zone, the DMK front has a 26.46 percentage point lead ahead of the AIADMK front.
