New Delhi: Keeping in mind the recently concluded state elections, ABP News released the biggest survey of Desh ka Mood in association with CVoter. This survey result captures the ongoing political sentiments of the voters Pan India for the General Elections 2019.
Today’s 3-hour show was telecasted in all new format- first hour included detailed survey reports followed by discussion on 2 ground reports Allahabad in Uttar Pradesh &Hajipur in Bihar and with a power packed debate with expert panel. The timeline of the survey was 4th week of November – 3rd week of December with over 57,701respondents spread across Pan India. The survey findings will showcase the sentiments of the voters post the results of State elections.
Avinash Pandey, COO, ABP News Network said, “This year has been very exciting for ABPNews Network wherein we have tried to innovate and create new content for every show with the vision of keeping #DeshKoRakheAagey. #DeshKaMood is yet another testimony of our interesting format which not only reads the public perception across the country, but also helps analyzing the Elections 2019, which will be going to be the most critical elections contested in recent times.”
Survey Data Results
Mahagathbandhan (MGB) of SP-BSP-RLD in Uttar Pradesh and Shiv Sena’s behavior in Maharashtra will be the two factors largely deciding NDA tally in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. An MGB in UP will constitute a decline of BJP tally to 28 seats in 2019. If the MGB fails to materialize then it will be advantage BJP with a tally of 72 seats. Also, in Maharashtra if Shiv Sena does not undertake pre-poll alliance with BJP, it will be advantage UPA in the state with a probable seat tally of 30 seats.
The split voting phenomenon is real and happening. As a part of our post-poll exercise for the 5 states that had vidhansabha polls, we also asked the respondents to name their loksabha voting preferences. The results in these projections are derived from the same and we can clearly see that voting choices made during vidhansabha polls stand largely reversed in loksabha polls for the states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Although in Chattisgarh Congress seems to be retaining the edge it gained in vidhansabha polls
2019 election could very well be “about distance from 272” for BJP if the MGB materializes. As of now the BJP is comfortably placed to emerge as the single largest party and NDA as the largest pre-poll alliance. However, it needs to be cautious from the Karnataka experience whereby despite a clear-cut electoral lead it was unable to attract post-poll allies. Alliances will be the key for BJP pre-poll and post-poll alike.
Congress gains are largely coming from the states of Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Punjab. These are the only states where it has the potential to touch double digits tally, in all other states that are electorally significant, it is either a minor partner or a weak contender. This means that party has a narrow base of victory to begin and will be hard pressed to maximize its gains going forward. This might place the party at a disadvantage for leading the opposition alliance.
BJP’s graph probably will suffer a big fall in UP and slight one in heartland states. This can in part be compensated by gains from Odisha and North East, however the key will be its ability to moderate the losses in territories that it gained maximally in 2014. Without expanding into newer and electorally equally significant territories, BJP will likely look at a lower tally than in 2014 and consequently weaker bargaining power vis a vis its allies.