Digital TV Research is forecasting that Netflix will have 128 million subscribers by 2022, with the number of international subs expected to exceed U.S. ones by early 2018.
Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “This impressive growth comes despite Netflix not having direct access to subscribers in the world’s largest country: China. Furthermore, Digital TV Research believes that Netflix will fall foul of Russian legislation. Due to be introduced in July 2017 this restricts foreign companies to only 20 percent of digital platforms’ equity.”
Together, North America and Western Europe will supply 72 percent of Netflix’s total subscriber base by 2022, down from 81 percent in 2016. The Asia-Pacific region will account for more than 10 million subscribers by 2022, nearly triple the 2016 total. The service expanded to 130 more countries in January 2016 to bring its total to 190 countries. The 130 new countries will have 14 million subscribers combined by 2022, up from 3 million at end-2016. The U.S. will still contribute 44 percent of subscribers by 2022. By 2022, 17 countries will have more than 1 million subs, up from 10 countries at end-2016.
Subscription revenues are expected to climb from $8.29 billion in 2016 to $14.86 billion in 2022. The 60 countries that started before January 2016 will provide 90 percent of revenues in 2022. However, the Asia-Pacific will quadruple its revenues to more than $1 billion. The U.S. will contribute 48 percent of Netflix’s subscription revenues by 2022, down from 61 percent in 2016.
Digital TV Research also forecasts that Netflix’s content spend will increase to $8.5 billion by 2022, which is 57 percent of subscription revenues.