Carat has forecast a 4.6 per cent year-on-year increase in global advertising spend to reach $540bn in 2015, a rise of $23.8bn on the year before.
Carat, the global media network, has published its first forecast for worldwide advertising expenditure in 2016, combined with its latest forecasts for 2015 and actual figures for 2014, with all markets ring-fencing Digital media spending, even when faced with negative economic headwinds.
Based on data received from 59 markets across the Americas, Asia Pacific and EMEA, Carat’s global advertising expenditure forecasts show digital media, with a predicted $$17.1 billion (or +15.7 per cent increase) in spend in 2015, is outpacing previous Carat predictions from September 2014. Powered by a dramatic rise in mobile ad spending globally of +50 per cent and online video of +21.1 per cent predicted in 2015, Carat forecasts that digital will, for the first time, account for more than a quarter of all advertising spend in 2016 with a market share of 25.9 per cent.
From a global perspective, Carat forecasts that in 2015 advertising spend across all media will increase by $23.8 billion to reach $540 billion, accounting for a +4.6 per cent year-on-year increase. Market optimism continues into 2016 with Carat’s first forecast for the year predicting a year-on-year global advertising growth of +5.0 per cent.
In 2014 all regions reported positive growth, from Western Europe at +2.3 per cent, +4.5 per cent in North America, +5.3 per cent for Asia Pacific and high performing Latin America at +11.4 per cent. Regional confidence is predicted to continue in 2015 with all key markets forecasting positive growth next year except Russia, due to a struggling advertising market and predicted recession. Western Europe is strengthened by a second consecutive year of positive growth driven by strong numbers in the UK and Spain; as well Greece, Ireland, and Portugal returning to positive growth after six consecutive years of ad spend declines. North America continues to grow at a solid pace of +4.5 per cent in 2015 and +4.6 per cent in 2016, with programmatic spending in the US predicted to grow by +137 per cent, reaching spend levels of $10billion.
By media, whilst digital is the star performer in terms of growth, achieving higher that predicted levels in 2014 of +17.4 per cent and accounting for 21.7 per cent of market share, TV will continue to command the majority of market share for the foreseeable future, reaching 42.7 per cent in 2014, and is predicted to grow by more than +3 per cent year-on-year in 2015 and 2016.
Commenting on the Carat Advertising Expenditure forecasts, Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Dentsu Aegis Network, said: “Carat’s latest advertising forecast gives us increased optimism for the outlook for global advertising spending. With harder times behind us, negative growth markets are pleasingly now a minority, and collectively we can look ahead to 2016 with positive growth predicted for all key markets.”
“The strength of digital continues to dominate discussions and the new distribution of spending. With a quarter of the global population now owning and relying on their smartphones daily, they are our second brain in our hands. Mobile dominates the way consumers access information, view content, browse products and purchase goods and this is reflected in the innovative services and approach we are discussing with our clients.”
