Mumbai: Following India’s assiduous fight against the rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic since the past six months, the country finally sees signs of green shoots with the faster recoveries and sharp decline of new cases. Tracking the coronavirus pandemic in India for the past several months, Times Fact-India Outbreak Report, released its latest projections and highlights that India is projected to peak with 7.87 lakh active cases on September 02 according to most likely scenario, after which the curve may hit a plateau till September 16, following which the cases are projected to show a steady decline. The report shows that following India’s peak, daily active case counts are projected to decline by November 17.
Showing positive signs of flattening the COVID-19 curve, the report indicates that a continued vigilance to practise social distancing and safety measures will be critical to stabilize and control the pandemic and in achieving India’s recovery from COVID-19.
Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: Key takeaways
- R0 for India is slowly going down to 1.55 from 1.63 in last 20 days. The growth rate of India has come down to 2.5%. The recovery rate has gone up to 74%. However, there are still huge number of cases being reported daily (65K – 70K) cases per day.
- The net new additions (Confirmed – Recovered) cases have come down from 16,000 per day to 10,000 per day.
- The report adds projections for 17 new cities and districts including Madurai, East Godavari, Patna, Thiruvananthapuram, Srinagar amongst others. With the major cities displaying consistency in slowing the rates of daily COVID-19 cases, the focus has turned to the smaller cities. A substantial chunk of India’s latest cases is now being recorded in India’s Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities.
- All the major states are beginning to peak in and around first 15 days of September with R0 close to are below 1.5
- Cases of Karnataka, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh have been growing rapidly with 12, 12 and 14 days doubling time respectively.
- Most of the states has been able to keep the growth in control and a lot of the urban areas have seen the peak (Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Thane, Chennai etc.).
- Growth rates for Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Gujarat, West Bengal, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana has significantly come down below 3% (7 Days Average).
- There are high growth states Andhra Pradesh (AP) and Odisha (OD) where the growth rate is in 7% – 10% and the doubling rate hovering around 6 -7 days.
Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: State and City Wise Projections
|Most Likely Model||SEIR Model|
|India, States & Cities||Projected Peak Date||Active Cases on peak date||Projected End Date||Projected Peak Date||Active Cases on peak date||Projected End Date|
For details on the study findings and insights, visit – https://www.timesnownews.com/times-facts
Methodology: Led by insights and efficacy, Times Fact India Outbreak Report a joint endeavour by Times Network and global data and digital consulting firm Protiviti, has achieved an accuracy rate of 90% for active cases for its previous projections. The report showcases several pertinent data points which includes India’s possible peak points, state & city wise projections and active cases over a period of time and report follows a sophisticated and vigorous mathematical modelling. Parsed by reputed data scientists and quantitative experts, Times Fact India Outbreak Report is based on two models, The Time Series Model, which involves factors in data across time periods in other countries affected by Covid-19 in addition to two polynomial regression models adapted to Indian data, and the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model which is based on an estimation of a reproduction rate of the epidemic. Drawing critical information from central government data, state government bulletins, and daily updates provided by the Health Ministry, the report is a holistic COVID -19 projection for the nation.