The leading global media network Carat has publishes its first forecast for worldwide advertising expenditure in 2017, combined with its latest forecasts for 2016 and actual figures for 2015, showing positive global outlook led by the continued investment in Digital media spending.
Based on data received from 59 markets across the Americas, Asia Pacific and EMEA, Carat’s latest global forecasts highlights that advertising spend will reach US$538 billion in 2016, accounting for a +4.5% year-on-year increase.
Fuelled by high-interest media events taking place during the year – including the US presidential elections, Rio 2016 Olympics and Paralympics and the UEFA EURO 2016 championship – the positive outlook for 2016 is predicted to continue into 2017, with Carat’s forecast highlighting a consistently strong year-on-year global advertising growth of +4.5%.
Carat’s latest forecasts reconfirm the rise of Digital as the established driver of global advertising spend growth. Powered by the upsurge of Mobile (+37.9%), Online Video (+34.7%) and Social Media (+29.8%) in 2016, the strength of Digital is expected to continue to grow at double digit prediction levels of +15.0% this year, and a further +13.6% in 2017.
Overall, Carat predicts the upsurge of Digital to account for 27.0% of advertising spend in 2016 and extend significantly to 29.3% in 2017, reaching US$161 billion globally.
In 2015 all regions reported positive growth, from Western Europe at +2.8%, +4.3% in North America, +3.6% in Asia Pacific and Latin America at +11.0%. Regional confidence is predicted to continue in most regions in 2016, despite volatility in some individual markets.
In 2016, the North American advertising market remains strong with a solid growth of +4.6%, with the upcoming presidential elections solely expected to generate US$6 billion advertising spend in the US. Western Europe’s sustained positive recovery driven by solid growth in the UK and Spain in 2015 is expected to continue in 2016 and 2017 at +3.1%.
Despite a decline in global growth forecasts due to China and Brazil’s economic volatility, Asia Pacific and Latin America advertising markets remain strong in 2016, achieving +4.4% and +10.5% year-on-year growth respectively. Carat also reports an encouraging outlook for 2017 across all regions including Central & Eastern Europe, as Russia’s economy is expected to stabilise from 2016. By media, Digital continues to be the star performer for growth level globally with Hong Kong & Estonia now joining the list of 12 markets where Digital is now the principle media used based on spend. The US, Germany, Taiwan and Austria are predicted to join this list in 2018.
Commenting on the Carat Advertising Expenditure forecasts, Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Dentsu Aegis Network, said: Carat’s Latest Advertising Forecast and its First Analysis for the 2017 Landscape gives us reinforced optimism for global advertising spend. Whilst Economic Volatility has impacted some major markets, Solid growth has been maintained globally, With stability foreseen for this year and next.
The strength of Digital continues to be the dominant element in the growth of the global advertising expenditure whilst TV spend remains as the foundation of our Industry. As advertising becomes more data driven and complex, It’s crucial to move rapidly to negative and meet the needs of the digital economy and this is reflected in the innovative capabilities and approach we provide to our clients” he added.
Ad Spend forecast for India:
Unlike growth in the other BRIC markets – Brazil, Russia and China – advertising expenditure in India continues to accelerate.
Following a buoyant year in 2015 with a growth of +11.0%, 2016 has begun on a positive note with a forecast growth rate of +12.0%.
Growth will be supported by the India T20 Cricket World Cup and the state elections. Media-related statistics for India include:
- TV advertising revenues are forecast to grow by +12.3% in 2016, supported by strong spending from e-commerce companies and FMCG brands.
- While TV is expected to remain dominant for many years to come, advertisers are increasingly utilising Online Video as an invaluable complement. However, share of total Digital advertising spend in India is still relatively low at 8.9% (2016).
- Unlike in other markets, positive Newspaper advertising spend growth is expected to continue in India at +10.5% in 2016, primarily due to investment from e-commerce, Automotive and a small contribution from Government spending.
Retail advertisers also continue to spend on Print.
Carat’s first forecasts for 2017 predict continuing strong growth for the advertising market in India with an estimated increase of +13.9% and expected favourable economic conditions in which advertisers vie for consumers’ attention.
